Saturday, December 06, 2008

Thoughts Economic

The economy, for lack of a better term. continues to tank:

In all, 10.3 million were reported unemployed in November, sending the nation's unemployment rate to 6.7 percent, the highest level in 15 years.

But here's an even more frightening number or way to look at the employment picture:

"For whatever reason, the focus has been on unemployment instead of this broader measure," said Christine Owens, a worker right's advocate and executive director of the National Employment Law Project. Underemployment "is a much more accurate measure of what the economy is really like for people."

You can read more about this depressing news in the Post.

The under employed number percentage is at 12.5%.

Then of course there is the problem in the auto industry. I don't see how you can let the big 3 go bankrupt. The impact on the economy would be too great. It would not only have an impact on the car companies but all those companies that supply parts to them. Some of them in all likelihood would go bankrupt as well.

That's why when people say that the foreign auto companies that have plants in this country wouldn't feel the effect of the big three going are just wrong. If the companies that supply the parts go under, the Toyota or Honda plant aren't going to have anything to build the cars with. They'd be forced to shut down as well.

What I do find interesting is the skepticism that Congress is greeting the request. After all they just handed over to the banking industry 700 billion dollars. The auto companies are asking for just about 5% of that. I know the reason Congress wants more details is they thing the big three will be back soon with hat in hand. (In a short aside the Washington Times has this incredible headline yesterday. I did a double take when I read it. It was something to the effect of the big three grovel for aid. It's not often you see grovel in a headline.)

Of course the fact the first time the big three were down here, they simply thought Congress would say sure here's some money. It showed an incredible tin ear to what was going on. There are legitimate questions to be asked. If we give this money will the culture in Detroit change at all? Will they actually build cars people want to buy? In earlier testimony they blamed the melt down in the economy for all their problems. That was certainly part of it but they seemed unable to admit that they had something to do with the problem too.

What to do about this?

Here are a few thoughts. Extend unemployment benefits. But do more than that for people unemployed. Treasury is now interested in actually helping individuals with mortgages or those attempting to get one. Why not take some of the $350 billion left in the bail out and renegotiate the mortgages of those people who are unemployed.

Move the rate down to say 4.5%. This wouldn't be for the entire life of the loan. It would be for 5 or 10 years. After that the loan rate would go back to what the original rate was or the market rate currently is. But here's what's important the rate would be which ever was lower of those two.

As to the auto industry, they need the money. But here's an idea why not have the government take over paying for the health and pensions. Again not for forever but for a certain period of time in which the big three would reorganize and renegotiate their contracts with the labor unions.

Any way those are my thoughts economic.

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