Wednesday, March 09, 2016

An Unexpected Results for the Democrats, For the Republicans More of the Same

Bernie Sanders ended up winning in Michigan. Not by much by like a percentage point. But a win is a win is a win. This is especially true when most polls showed your opponent was way a head of you.

Obviously the trade issue had a big impact on the results of the primary. Sanders hit a nerve with this. The Clinton campaign needs to be concerned on the possibility of what this would mean. From the Post:
Given Sanders’ remarkable comeback in Michigan — most polling had him losing by more than 20 points — there are a handful of large, industrial states, many clumped in the Midwest, where Sanders now has to be considered viable, assuming he continues to ride the trade message that catapulted him to the top in the Wolverine State.

Ohio — and its haul of 66 delegates — looks good for Clinton as of this morning with a CNN poll showing her leading by 30 points. But given Sanders’ surge in the final days before Michigan — not to mention the positive press he’ll get in Ohio and everywhere else from his Michigan win — it’s hard to totally write off his chances. Same goes for Illinois, which, like Ohio, votes on March 15. And Wisconsin on April 5. And Pennsylvania on April 26.
This was not the night Clinton had hoped for. The hope was to win in both Mississippi and Michigan big. It means the Democrats still have a race on their hands. Although Sanders is still a long shot for the nomination. At the end of the night Clinton (because of the lopsided win in Mississippi) got 18 more delegates then Sanders. Clinton continues to expand her lead on Sanders. Right now that lead is around 200 delegates without counting Super Delegates. That makes it harder and harder for Sanders to win enough delegates to get the nomination. If the other contests in the Midwest are this close (Illinois will probably not go that way because of the large African-American community there), Clinton doesn’t have to win because she will still add to her delegate total. The down side of that is Clinton needs to win those contest to show she can win in the fall.

As for the Republicans. Trump moves closer and closer to winning the nomination. This is especially true as contest move from proportional to winner take all.

This from the Post sums up the oh so clever Republicans:
Much to the dismay of some Republicans, the party’s primary process is working just as intended. Designed to choose a nominee quickly, this year’s rules have advanced that air of inevitability forming around Donald Trump, who has won 15 of the first 24 contests.

The contest is still close. Trump has 458 delegates. Cruz has 459. Rubio has 151. Kasich 54. Trump is ahead in many contests. So even with a proportional system, Trump would continue to win the most delegates in most of the contests. But under a proportional system it would be easier for the Republican establishment to stop Trump. It would be easier for other candidates to gain enough delegates to deny Trump a majority. But with many contests becoming winner take all. A win by Trump allows him to get all of the delegates.
So while the Democrats will very well have a contest until June. There is a strong possibility that with Trump wins in Florida and Ohio he will be unstoppable. There’s a possibility that Kasich could win Ohio. But Florida looks like it’s Trump. Rubio is well behind and his campaign is in free fall.

It would be funny if it weren’t so important. But the Republicans are reaping what they sowed. The bad thing about it is the general public has to deal with it.

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