Tuesday, March 15, 2016

Will the Race Get Clearer Tonight?

It looks like the contest between Clinton and Sanders will continue. It is very unlikely that tonight knocks one of them out. Sanders hopes to win in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri. Ohio and Missouri are possibilities but Illinois might be a stretch. If Sanders does win in those three, the margins will be very close.

Clinton will win Florida and North Carolina probably rather decisively in both cases. That’s Sanders problem. Lately when he wins, it is only by the slimmest of margins. He won in Michigan but by little over a percentage point. While on that same night Clinton won Mississippi overwhelmingly.

The bottom line is that Clinton continues to widen her delegate lead. Even if she were to lose Illinois, Ohio and Missouri, the margins will probably be so close that she’ll pick almost as many delegates as Sanders. The optics of not winning across the board and sewing up the nomination will not be good for Clinton. But it is hard to see how Sanders can get enough delegates to win the nomination if all the states he wins are by such small margins.

Turning to the Republicans well they continue to be a mess. Today is must wins for John Kasich and Marco Rubio. It looks like Kasich may be able to score the upset. Rubio in all likelihood will be crushed in Florida.

And I for one would be happy if that would happen. I have to say the more I hear from Rubio the more of an empty suit he is. After the dust up at the Trump rally in Chicago on Friday. Rubio said that Trump was partially to blame because of his rhetoric. Then Rubio says that Obama is to blame as well. WTF?!

Really. I’d say that’s unbelievable but really it is par for the course for the Republicans. Everything is Obama’s fault. Actually, Senator Rubio it is the fault of you and your fellow Republicans that allowed these bigoted know nothings into your party. It was fine when there furry was directed at Obama. But once that furry switched to the Republican Party well then everything was different. That’s why I’m so looking forward to Rubio being buried by Trump tonight. Hopefully this is the last time we’ll have to listen to this bozo.

The bottom line is of course the delegate counts. Primary wins are important but delegates are even more important. So here’s where we are in the delegate count from RealClear Politics:

For the Democrats (I’m leaving out the super delegates): Clinton-748, Sanders-542. That gives Clinton a 206 delegate lead. The important thing is what that lead is after all the votes have been counted.

For the Republicans: Trump-460, Cruz-370, Rubio-163, Kasich-63. Is tonight that night that Trump wins across the board and sews up the nomination?

As they say on TV tune in tonight for the results

No comments: