Wednesday, February 10, 2016

The New Hampshire Results are In

The results certainly are in. It’s turned the race in both parties upside down. At least that seems to be the conventional wisdom. I guess that’s true. I’m not sure the results on the Democrats side is all that much of a surprise considering how the polls were going. I think that’s true on the Republican side too. I think it’s been a wake up call, slap in the face, dose of reality or whatever other cliché you want to use. The voters are angry and restless and the establishments in both parties are now really and truly getting that.

First things first. I want to say I’m so glad Iowa and New Hampshire are out of the way. I know it’s tradition that this two states go first but they certainly do not represent what the country is like. Both are really really white. Iowa is very evangelical. Iowa is also a caucus state which, well I’ve made my feelings clear about what I think of caucuses. I think caucuses should just be gotten rid of across the board. The states that have them should have primaries instead. I know that’s not going to happen but it’s not going to stop me from pointing that out every chance I get.

Now on to the results.

I have to say I’m so very glad that Rubio got his clock cleaned. I have never understood the favorable press this guy has gotten. That he is some how a really smart guy. The debate showed he’s good with a line but that’s it. Can’t think on his feet at all. He spun a third place finish in Iowa into some kind of win. With the results in Iowa, the idea was for him to come in second. He had all the momentum going into New Hampshire. But that might not actually be the case.

This is from a story in the Post:
We can say pretty conclusively that a look at polls in New Hampshire on the day of the Iowa caucuses (when Rubio had an average of 9.5 percent) and a look at the final result would suggest that Rubio had no bump during the last week -- or that, if he did, the tide went out as suddenly as it came in.

Rubio finally admitted he made a mistake. Supposedly it will be fixed. But I’m not sure exactly how his campaign goes about doing that. I have a feeling he won’t do very well in South Carolina and will be out after that. At least I hope so.

Trump of course was the big winner. He had to be. A loss would have been really hard on his campaign. And he won really big. 20 points ahead of his nearest rival John Kasich. Trump got 35% of the vote. This is important because the conventional wisdom from the media is that Trump’s support has a ceiling of around 30%. He broke that level. I think that’s important.

Going forward there will be stiffer competition with the primaries moving to the south. Cruz will be much stronger there. Bush has a history in South Carolina. But as of right now (according to the RealClear Politics site based on polls taken mid to late January) Trump is at 36%. The next closest rival is Cruz at 20%. I’m not sure how anyone catches Trump in South Carolina. And he will be getting huge press coverage because of the win in New Hampshire.

John Kasich came in second. To be honest I don’t know where he goes from here. From all reports he bet the farm on New Hampshire and it did pay off for him. But does he have the money and organization to win anywhere else. Also the campaign moves south so that doesn’t help him all that much. As we say in my family we’ll see.

The Democrats
Bernie crushed Hillary. And there’s not a whole lot more you need to say about it. This will give Bernie and big boost no question. He has the money to go the distance. In fact, he probably has more money then Clinton right now.

The question is where does Clinton go to raise money.  Have big fund raisers with all those fat cats plays right into Sanders’ hand.

But Sanders has, well I’m not sure they’re problems, but is going on to states where the make up of the electorate is very different then Iowa or New Hampshire. It will be interesting to see how well Sanders will be able to appeal to minority voters as well as people at different economic levels.

For the Democrats on to Nevada which is unfortunately another caucus state.

No comments: