Thursday, May 31, 2007

What to do

I've been thinking on and off about this for a long time. What steps can be taking to make America energy independent. Make America independent in a reasonable time frame not the 20 or so years that most politicians talk about.

So let’s start with some assumptions:

1. That we are indeed in a war with the Islamic terrorists. That they do indeed want to destroy us.

2. Our dependence on oil helps to fund these terrorists and the states that support them. Would Iran be doing what it is doing today in the world without its oil revenue? The answer is pretty simple. No.

3. Oil and the revenue from oil are going to be used as weapons against us. Imagine if Iran decides it’s not going to sell any more oil. Or Saudi Arabia is taking over by extremists. How long do you think oil would be flowing to the US?

4. So becoming energy independent is in reality a national security issue.

Why hasn’t a politician pitched the move to energy independence that way. Military officials have raised the issue of energy dependence being a question of national security. Perhaps because to really go after this problem and solve it in a reasonable time frame would call for some sort of sacrifice on the part of the American people. And that seems something politicians are extremely reluctant to call for. After all America is at “war” in Iraq yet the only people that this has consequences for are the members of the military and their families. The Iraq war is certainly not having an impact on the average American’s life.

Then there is the question of where to start. It is a huge problem becoming energy independent. I think the way is by small steps across the board.

Here are a few of my ideas:

Give a $15,000 tax credit for buying a hybrid car. The person would get $3,000 a year for 5 years.

Give a $10,000 tax credit for HEV (high efficiency vehicle). The person would get $2,000 a year for 5 years. Now what exactly is an HEV? An HEV would be a car that had a high EPA mileage rating. The EPA is now recalculating the mileage standards to better reflect how people drive today. Having said that I’d say an HEV would need to get somewhere between 35-40 miles per gallon to qualify for the tax credit.

These tax credits would apply to new or used cars that meet the criteria.

Ok so there are tax credits for hybrids. There are actually tax credits now for hybrids. There not nearly as much as my proposal. More importantly just about no one knows about them.

So the word needs to get out about this. The government should go out to Hollywood and ask Mr. Lucas and Mr. Eastwood and Mr. Spielberg and Mr. Coppola and Mr. Scorsese etc to direct commercials about the hybrid and HEV tax incentives. At the same time ask Mr. Pitt and Mr. Damon and Mr. Clooney and Ms Roberts and Ms Sarandon etc to appear in the commercials. Once they are done the government goes to the commercial networks and says the eight hours the Academy Awards are on there will be one of these commercials on every hour. And one every hour that the Super Bowl is on. In fact every hour during prime time there will be one of these commercials on each of the broadcast networks. If they have problems with say we are at war and if you don’t like it then will pull your licenses. The media blitz would not just be on TV. It would be on radio. There would be attempts to put it on the cable stations. There’d be billboards and adds on buses and trains and subways. Those annoying ads you have to sit through when you go to movies they’d be there too. It would be a campaign that everyone would know about.

The federal government would make a commitment to increase the number of hybrids and HEV that it leases. The goal would be over five years to have 50% of the leased vehicles be hybrids or HEVs. This could apply to state and local governments as well. You could also encourage such actions as making all taxis hybrids as is being done in New York City. The goal in New York City is to have all cabs be hybrids by 2012. This would easily be duplicated in cities across the country. The hybrid technology is perfect for taxi cabs as stated in one story:

Automakers said hybrids are uniquely well-suited to be taxis. Many of them, like the Ford Escape, run solely on battery power while stopped or at low speeds, so they don’t cough exhaust while navigating through city traffic. At higher speeds, the gas-powered drive system kicks in and the two work together.

Then there is what I call the gas guzzler tax. There would be a minimum mileage threshold. I would put it at 20 miles per gallon. Any vehicle that did not reach that threshold would have a tax of $1,000 added to the price for each mile per gallon it was below the threshold. Take a Hummer which gets 11 miles to the gallon. It falls 9 miles per gallon below the threshold. The sticker price would go up $9,000. The money would go into the social security fund or better yet the Veteran’s Administration. Now for small businesses buying trucks there would be an exemption.

The final aspect of the plan is regarding the price of gas itself. No serious change in American driving habits is going to happen unless the price of gas is address. The problem is that it is too low. Fuel efficient cars will never catch on unless gas costs more. I’m not for putting a 50 cent tax on each gallon of gas. I think a better way to do this is to set a floor for the price of gas and to raise that floor over time. Let’s say the floor is set at $2.00 a gallon. The price of gas would never go below that level. If for some reason it did, a tax would kick in that would raise the price to $2. Any money made from this tax would go to either social security or the VA. Each year the floor would be raised by 10 cents. I’m not sure how practical this would be but there has to be some sort of stick to force people to use more efficient cars.

This again would be just a first step. There are many other areas to explore. But it seems to me what politicians are proposing today just aren't enough to really do much to solve the problem. I think I've come up with a pretty good first step.

2 comments:

Arthur Schenck said...

The reason that politicians don't push energy independence is that too many of them have their hands covered on oil--like the entire Bush Administration, most of whom are oil millionaires. In a conflict between the national interest and their personal financial interest, they pick their wallet every time.

This administration's lame attempts so far, by pushing ethanol, are mainly a sop to the farmers in Republican states. We have people starving in the world because of crop failures caused by climate change, and Bushie thinks it would be a good idea to grow food to power hummers instead of people.

To promote energy independence, I like the general idea of tax credits as the carrot, but I think you're being to lenient with fuel efficiency standards. I'd raise the minimum mileages every year, even if it's only by 1mpg, though this would apply to new cars, not cars working through their tax break.

Also, I'd like to see some sort of requirement that the cars are tuned and serviced every six months. This keeps the cars with maximum fuel efficiency and running as clean as they can. If you don't do this, you lose subsequent tax credits.

A gas guzzler tax is a great idea, too, but 20mpg is an awfully low threshold. That, too, should be raised annually.

Then, state and local auto registration fees should be tied to the efficiency ratings: gas guzzlers should pay higher fees than efficient cars (this, like the gas guzzler tax, would provide the stick to go with the carrots of tax credits).

The main problem with all this, however, is that it will hit the poor and working classes the hardest. Not everyone can use public transport, and for them a new car, even with tax credits, would be out of the question. So some sort of mechanism would have to be found to offset higher registration fees and taxes for poorer people. Maybe government-guaranteed zero-interest loans for them to buy new HEV or hybrid cars.

The point here is to increase the overall efficiency and cleanness of America's car "fleet" by getting rid of older, dirtier, thirstier cars. The antique Ford Model T got 25MPG, so the country's definitely gone backwards.

Finally, I'd put the revenue into a Manhattan Project for energy independence because the oil companies will never spend money to bring about their own demise.

Jason in DC said...

I forgot to add that the floor would be raised by 1 mile each year.

Yes the tricky thing to do is how to help out low income people.

However they probably won't be buying Hummers. They'd be buying cars that don't cost as much and usually get better mileage so they'd get the tax credit.