Primary Results and Tests to Come

South Carolina

This article from the Post on the results in South Carolina.

One point on the way the story was presented. The jump headline was: Obama Wins Needed Momentum Before Super Tuesday. It seems to me that neither Clinton or Obama has gotten much momentum out of their respective wins.

From the story:

Obama has, it appears, secured a solid base among African Americans, despite the fondness that many black voters had for Bill Clinton, and despite early uncertainty among many African Americans about whether Obama was a viable candidate or whether they could identify with the son of a Kenyan father and a white mother. He will count on this base to deliver strong showings in the four Southern states that vote on Feb. 5 -- he headed last night to Macon, Ga., and today will visit Birmingham, Ala. -- as well as to help him compete in big states such as California, New York and New Jersey.

At the same time, though, Obama will strive to prove in states such as Kansas, Colorado and North Dakota that he continues to hold appeal for white voters in “red state” areas, such as rural Iowa, where he ran close to even with Clinton and Edwards, and rural Nevada, where he outperformed Clinton. And he will try to cut into Clinton’s large advantage among Hispanic voters, which advisers in both campaigns agree is due partly to historic tensions between blacks and Hispanics.

There is time for Obama to make head way in some of these states but he's down by 12% in California, 14% in Connecticut and 37% in Massachusetts.

Maybe the endorsement of Ted Kennedy will make a difference there. The news media gave this huge play. I'm not down playing that getting Kennedy's endorsement is important. My question is does the Kennedy name still have that much pull. I guess it does in the demographic groups that Obama was having trouble with. Of course the main thing is that Clinton didn't get so I guess the Obama camp has to think that's important.

Florida and the Republicans

If you needed any further proof that John McCain and Mitt Romney hate each other all you need to do is read some of the news stories. This from the Post and this from USA Today. Or you could watch the nightly news. You can just tell these guys hate each other. In fact you tell the in general the whole Republican field dislikes Romney. What happened to Reagan's 11 commandment?

McCain has a razor thin lead in Florida like around a point. I think Romney needs the win more than McCain. Florida is a winner take all in the terms of delegates which would be a big boost to whomever wins. If McCain wins he's in the drivers seat I think. He's way ahead in New York, New Jersey and Connecticut. In all of these states Giuliani is the guy who's in second. In California McCain is up by 8 points. So Florida is much more important to Romney than McCain. Giuliani well he seems to out of the race but then again so was Clinton in New Hampshire.

Tomorrow night should be very interesting.