Monday, January 21, 2008

South Carolina and Nevada

South Carolina
McCain win s in South Carolina. Not by much but a win is a win. More importantly the results in all likelihood means that Thompson is done. It also means that Huckabee has been unable to expand his base beyond evangelicals. He only got 40% of their vote compared to 27% for McCain. I guess Chuck Norris is more popular in Iowa than in South Carolina.

Now it is on to Florida. Where Rudolph W. Giuliani waits to muddy up the field even more. Right now McCain has a very slight edge in the polls over Giuliani.

The article from the Post sums it up pretty well:

The Jan. 29 contest in Florida will be the first Republican primary closed to independent voters, who have provided McCain with his margins of victory in both New Hampshire and South Carolina. A victory, strategists agreed, would stamp McCain as the front-runner in what has been a muddied Republican race and give him a clear advantage heading toward Super Tuesday on Feb. 5.


Another important point is this is a winner take all primary. So coming in second gets you nothing.

The delegate total so far is:

Romney 59
Huckabee 40
McCain 36

A candidate needs 1,191 to win the nomination so there is a very long way to go.

Nevada

On the Republican side Romney won in a contest no other candidates spent any time on. In all maybe 40,000 people voted. This is something the Republicans should be worried about. There turnout is way below that of the Democrats which doesn't bode well for them in the general election.

On the Democrats side Clinton won. I'm not sure how important this was but it slow s down Obama a little more. Although I have to suspect that Obama will win big in South Carolina. But I also have to wonder, if the fact he is expected to win in South Carolina, diminished the victory a little because he is supposed to win there. It is not like Iowa which came as a complete surprise.

Delegate count for the Democrats:
Clinton 236
Obama 136
Edwards 50

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