A Guide to Early Voting

Here's a guide to early voting for the people I know around the US. Hope this helps people get out and vote!

California	Any voter registered in California can vote early in person. Dates vary by county. You may vote early in person at your county elections office or at other early voting locations.
Florida	October 29 – November 5, 2016
Illinois	Sept 29-Nov 7 Any voter in Illinois can vote early, without an excuse required. Check with your local elections authority, below, for dates and hours.
Maryland	Oct 27-Nov 3 Early voting starts the 2nd Thursday before an election through the Thursday before an election. Designated polling places will be open from 10:00 a.m. to 8:00 p.m. during the early voting period.
Missouri	Not available
Montana	Voting: Oct 8-Nov 7 Montana does not have traditional early voting but you can cast an in-person absentee ballot starting no later than 30 days before the election.
New York	Not available
North Carolina	Oct 27-Nov 5 North Carolina has "one-stop voting," which allows registered voters to vote early at all county board of elections offices during regular office hours. Some county boards of elections offer additional one-stop sites within the county.
Texas	Oct 24-Nov 4 Contact your local County Voter Registration Officials for information specific to your county.
Utah	Oct 25-Nov 4 If you are registered to vote at least 30 days prior to the election, you may participate in early voting in the counties where in-person early voting is offered. Check the link below for information about the early voting hours and locations in your county.
Virginia	Virginia offers in-person absentee voting.
Washington	In addition to sending ballots by mail, they may also be returned to a designated ballot drop box or returned in person to the county elections department by 8 p.m. on Election Day.
Washington, DC	Oct 29-Nov 05 Voters can vote early in person. Early Voting Center hours are from 8:30 a.m. to 7:00 p.m.
Wyoming	30-Sep Starting Sept. 30, voters may submit an in-person absentee ballot at their county clerk's office.

How Can Anyone Be Surprised at What Trump Said

Here's just a little of what Trump said:

“I moved on her, and I failed. I’ll admit it,” Trump is heard saying. It was unclear when the events he was describing took place. The tape was recorded several months after he married his third wife, Melania.

“Whoa,” another voice said.

“I did try and f--- her. She was married,” Trump says.

Trump continues: “And I moved on her very heavily. In fact, I took her out furniture shopping. She wanted to get some furniture. I said, ‘I’ll show you where they have some nice furniture.’”

“I moved on her like a bitch, but I couldn’t get there. And she was married,” Trump says. “Then all of a sudden I see her, she’s now got the big phony tits and everything. She’s totally changed her look.”

Only after this are Republicans saying they cannot support Trump. They are shocked and outraged over this. Really!

A little sampling of the "outrage" from Republican officials:

“As disappointed as I’ve been with his antics throughout this campaign, I thought supporting the nominee was the best thing for our country and our party,” Rep. Martha Roby (Ala.) said in a statement. “Now, it is abundantly clear that the best thing for our country and for our party is for Trump to step aside and allow a responsible, respectable Republican to lead the ticket.”

Kelly Ayotte, the New Hampshire senator in a tight reelection race, who had said she supported but did not endorse Trump, tweeted Saturday morning that she would not vote for him and would instead write in Pence.

“I cannot and will not support a candidate for president who brags about degrading and assaulting women,” Ayotte said in a statement.

Just amazing. Just amazing. But not all that surprising. Republicans, in general, long ago put their party above what was best for this country. And that has now come home to roost in the guise of Donald Trump.

The fake outrage is best summed up by a column by E.J. Dionne in the Post:

Maybe the Republicans who are now oh-so-outraged and are pulling their endorsements have done their political calculations. They figured that they could write off African Americans, Muslims and Latinos, but could not possibly offend all women, too. Perhaps they remembered the things they have said about “family values” and the importance of “character” and realized they just couldn’t roll with this one.

But if they cared about “character” and “family values,” Trump had already made clear that these meant nothing to him. This is a guy who bragged about sleeping with (terribly Victorian of me, I know, to use that term) married women.

Once again what matters to Republican was using the people who supported Trump to ride to victory. Just as they used the Tea Party to gain the House and then the Senate. Making all sorts of promises they knew they would never keep. They thought they could control these people. Then they found out they couldn't.

Trump is the result.

But still establishment Republicans thought each time he says something outrageous will just go tsk tsk. Say how bad he is and that he needs to change. They dismissed any and all over the top statements by Trump as a reason not to support him. Now they're shocked by what he says.

Dana Milbank has a great column in the Post he says in part:

Here, for the benefit of those Republicans feigning surprise about Trump’s video, is a partial catalogue of reported remarks Trump has made about women — remarks which, by embracing Trump as the GOP presidential nominee, office holders in the party have already condoned.

There then follows a long list of just some of Trump's comments. Click here to see the whole list.

The important thing to note about this column is that this is only a partial list of the incredible statements made by Trump.

But most Republicans are once again giving Trump cover and excusing what he said. The Post editorial board hits on the mark in their editorial. This is what I think is the most important part of it:

House Speaker Paul D. Ryan correctly described Donald Trump’s 2005 taped sexually predatory conversation as “sickening,” but anyone interested in the health of the Republican Party should focus on the next part of Mr. Ryan’s statement. The sentence that counts — the statement that reveals the amoral, abject corruption at the heart of the Republican Party in this sad season — is this: “I hope Mr. Trump treats this situation with the seriousness it deserves and works to demonstrate to the country that he has greater respect for women than this clip suggests.”

Thus did the Republican Party once again initiate the same pathetic little dance it has performed with its party’s nominee from the beginning. Claim the moral high ground; insist on improvement, as if improvement were a relevant concept in this situation; and then, when nothing improves, pronounce yourself satisfied nonetheless. It’s true that this time some Republicans are jumping ship, including (finally) former presidential nominee Sen. John McCain (Ariz.) and Sen. John Thune (S.D.), part of the GOP Senate leadership. But vice-presidential nominee Mike Pence, Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (Ky.), Republican Chairman Reince Priebus and most other office-holders continue to join Mr. Ryan in pretending that Mr. Trump is not what we all know him to be. Are they fooling themselves, or just fearful of offending the Trump supporters whose votes they need in other races? Either way, the effect is the same.

 And so the campaign goes on. And the moral decay of the Republican Party continues. But that's all that much of a surprise.

I'm Not Watching Tonight

And of course I mean I won't be watching Monday Night Football.

But or course I mean I won't be watching the debate. In fact I stopped watching the debates a long time ago. To me they have become meaningless. I don't think you learn much from them. Part of that is I've made up my mind how I'll be voting. And I'm not interested in seeing Trump lie for 90 minutes.

Another reason I've stopped watching is I've become disillusioned with the political process. At one point politicians had ideas. There was at least some debate on the issues. The media also covered the issues. Now it seems like endless name calling on the part of the candidates and all the media is the results of the latest polls.

And then this year there is Trump. The culmination of the Republican Party's pandering to the far far far right of their party. The result being a candidate who is uniquely unqualified to be president. But the Republicans don't care about that. All that matters to them and has matter for a long time is power. If it takes pandering to a reactionary and undemocratic forces so be it. All that matter is that Republicans win.

Nothing shows this more to me than this statement from a Trump campaign official (who just so happened to be a contestant on his reality show). Every critic, every detractor will have to bow down to President Trump.

She might want to read the Constitution (my guess if she did it would be the first time she has). She might find out we are electing a president not a king.

The State of the Race — It’s a Mess for the Republicans

I haven’t posted about the state of the race lately because things got busy. Cherry blossoms, Charlie and Linus’ birthday celebration and opening day.

But now I can turn some attention to it and it is in a word a mess. Maybe that’s not exactly the right word to use. It’s become complicated especially on the Republican side (I'll deal with the Democrats tomorrow).

Trump is trying his hardest to reach the magic delegate total of 1,237. At this point in time delegates are the most important thing. Yes it is important to win primaries as Trump will go next week in New York. But the delegates matter a whole lot more. And Cruz is playing a much smarter game on that score. From the Post:

Consider what happened over the weekend in Colorado, where rival Ted Cruz walked away with all of the state’s 34 delegates. The WaPo’s Ed O’Keefe wrote of Colorado: “At the state GOP convention, Trump supporters distributed glossy fliers urging people to vote for a slate of their preferred candidates. But several names were misspelled or assigned the wrong ballot number.” Trump forces insisted that they weren’t competing aggressively in Colorado and noted that they had just installed a new state director. Trump himself fell back on his preferred stance when things don’t go his way: complaining.

And here’s how Trump’s complained:

Trump has responded by lashing out at party leaders, at his rivals and at the delegate process, arguing that the system is “totally corrupt” and that Cruz is “stealing” delegates at state conventions.

“These are dirty tricksters. This is a dirty trick. And I’ll tell you what, the RNC, the Republican National Committee, they should be ashamed of themselves for allowing this crap to happen,” Trump said during a rally here Tuesday.

In fact, there are no tricks involved in this at all. These are the rules set out by the Republican Party. Just like the Democrats set out rules on how delegates are awarded and the process of how they are awarded. The notion that the primary process is a straight democratic process is really not the case. It’s just that the nomination rules have not come under scrutiny because it has been so long since they actually mattered. Usually by the end of the primary process a winner has emerged. There has been no question that one person has indeed gotten the magic number of the majority of delegates.

But with the Republicans that is looking more and more like it won’t happen. This is especially true if Cruz can pick up delegates like he did in Colorado. There’s one more thing which I didn’t realize again from the Post:

Frontloading HQ’s Josh Putnam notes, about 68 percent of all Republican delegates have been allocated but just 28 percent actually have been selected. A bit of math tells you that 72 percent of the delegates to the Republican National Convention have not yet been selected.

It’s a little confusing but in essence the actual person who is going to be the delegate and going to the convention has not been selected.

Why does that matter?

If no candidate has the majority of delegates to win on the first ballot, then there will be a second ballot. On the second ballot a whole bunch of delegates who were bound to vote for a specific candidate on the first ballot will be free to vote for whomever they want on the second ballot. And each additional ballot means more and more delegates become free agents

There’s one more thing in the rules too: “that delegates assigned to vote for Trump at the convention do not actually have to be Trump supporters. Cruz is particularly focused on getting loyalists elected to delegate positions even in states that the senator from Texas lost.” This is important because if there is a second ballot these original Trump delegates will be voting for Cruz. This underscores for Cruz just how important it is to make sure Trump does not get to the magic number of 1,237.

So now each and every delegate counts. Not only how the delegates are allocated but who the delegates actually are.

Oh July in Cleveland could be just amazing.

Will the Race Get Clearer Tonight?

It looks like the contest between Clinton and Sanders will continue. It is very unlikely that tonight knocks one of them out. Sanders hopes to win in Illinois, Ohio and Missouri. Ohio and Missouri are possibilities but Illinois might be a stretch. If Sanders does win in those three, the margins will be very close.

Clinton will win Florida and North Carolina probably rather decisively in both cases. That’s Sanders problem. Lately when he wins, it is only by the slimmest of margins. He won in Michigan but by little over a percentage point. While on that same night Clinton won Mississippi overwhelmingly.

The bottom line is that Clinton continues to widen her delegate lead. Even if she were to lose Illinois, Ohio and Missouri, the margins will probably be so close that she’ll pick almost as many delegates as Sanders. The optics of not winning across the board and sewing up the nomination will not be good for Clinton. But it is hard to see how Sanders can get enough delegates to win the nomination if all the states he wins are by such small margins.

Turning to the Republicans well they continue to be a mess. Today is must wins for John Kasich and Marco Rubio. It looks like Kasich may be able to score the upset. Rubio in all likelihood will be crushed in Florida.

And I for one would be happy if that would happen. I have to say the more I hear from Rubio the more of an empty suit he is. After the dust up at the Trump rally in Chicago on Friday. Rubio said that Trump was partially to blame because of his rhetoric. Then Rubio says that Obama is to blame as well. WTF?!

Really. I’d say that’s unbelievable but really it is par for the course for the Republicans. Everything is Obama’s fault. Actually, Senator Rubio it is the fault of you and your fellow Republicans that allowed these bigoted know nothings into your party. It was fine when there furry was directed at Obama. But once that furry switched to the Republican Party well then everything was different. That’s why I’m so looking forward to Rubio being buried by Trump tonight. Hopefully this is the last time we’ll have to listen to this bozo.

The bottom line is of course the delegate counts. Primary wins are important but delegates are even more important. So here’s where we are in the delegate count from RealClear Politics:

For the Democrats (I’m leaving out the super delegates): Clinton-748, Sanders-542. That gives Clinton a 206 delegate lead. The important thing is what that lead is after all the votes have been counted.

For the Republicans: Trump-460, Cruz-370, Rubio-163, Kasich-63. Is tonight that night that Trump wins across the board and sews up the nomination?

As they say on TV tune in tonight for the results

An Unexpected Results for the Democrats, For the Republicans More of the Same

Bernie Sanders ended up winning in Michigan. Not by much by like a percentage point. But a win is a win is a win. This is especially true when most polls showed your opponent was way a head of you.

Obviously the trade issue had a big impact on the results of the primary. Sanders hit a nerve with this. The Clinton campaign needs to be concerned on the possibility of what this would mean. From the Post:

Given Sanders’ remarkable comeback in Michigan — most polling had him losing by more than 20 points — there are a handful of large, industrial states, many clumped in the Midwest, where Sanders now has to be considered viable, assuming he continues to ride the trade message that catapulted him to the top in the Wolverine State.

Ohio — and its haul of 66 delegates — looks good for Clinton as of this morning with a CNN poll showing her leading by 30 points. But given Sanders’ surge in the final days before Michigan — not to mention the positive press he’ll get in Ohio and everywhere else from his Michigan win — it’s hard to totally write off his chances. Same goes for Illinois, which, like Ohio, votes on March 15. And Wisconsin on April 5. And Pennsylvania on April 26.

This was not the night Clinton had hoped for. The hope was to win in both Mississippi and Michigan big. It means the Democrats still have a race on their hands. Although Sanders is still a long shot for the nomination. At the end of the night Clinton (because of the lopsided win in Mississippi) got 18 more delegates then Sanders. Clinton continues to expand her lead on Sanders. Right now that lead is around 200 delegates without counting Super Delegates. That makes it harder and harder for Sanders to win enough delegates to get the nomination. If the other contests in the Midwest are this close (Illinois will probably not go that way because of the large African-American community there), Clinton doesn’t have to win because she will still add to her delegate total. The down side of that is Clinton needs to win those contest to show she can win in the fall.

As for the Republicans. Trump moves closer and closer to winning the nomination. This is especially true as contest move from proportional to winner take all.

This from the Post sums up the oh so clever Republicans:

Much to the dismay of some Republicans, the party’s primary process is working just as intended. Designed to choose a nominee quickly, this year’s rules have advanced that air of inevitability forming around Donald Trump, who has won 15 of the first 24 contests.

The contest is still close. Trump has 458 delegates. Cruz has 459. Rubio has 151. Kasich 54. Trump is ahead in many contests. So even with a proportional system, Trump would continue to win the most delegates in most of the contests. But under a proportional system it would be easier for the Republican establishment to stop Trump. It would be easier for other candidates to gain enough delegates to deny Trump a majority. But with many contests becoming winner take all. A win by Trump allows him to get all of the delegates.

So while the Democrats will very well have a contest until June. There is a strong possibility that with Trump wins in Florida and Ohio he will be unstoppable. There’s a possibility that Kasich could win Ohio. But Florida looks like it’s Trump. Rubio is well behind and his campaign is in free fall.

It would be funny if it weren’t so important. But the Republicans are reaping what they sowed. The bad thing about it is the general public has to deal with it.

The State of the Race

The Republicans

The focus tends to be more on the Republicans. The reason of course is Trump. The craziness that is Donald Trump. The scrambling by the establishment to stop at any cost. The debate last week was a Trump bashing to say the least. Trump would be terrible, unsuitable to the presidency. On and on and on and on and on. But at the end of the night each of the candidates said that they would support whomever was the nominee of the Republican Party.

Guess maybe Trump isn’t that completely and totally unsuitable after all. Trump would be better than Clinton. The reaction to that is who are you kidding. Once again winning is put above all else by the Republicans. I know I sound like a broken record on this.

Along came the contests on Saturday. Ted Cruz took two. Trump took two. But the margins where Trump won were much smaller than expected. Could this be the slow down of the Trump phenomenon the Republican establishment was and is so desperately looking for?

Perhaps if things just go so Trump can be stopped from getting the necessary delegates to win on the first ballot. From the Post:

The presentation is an 11th-hour rebuttal to the fatalism permeating the Republican establishment: Slide by slide, state by state, it calculates how Donald Trump could be denied the presidential nomination.

Marco Rubio wins Florida. John Kasich wins Ohio. Ted Cruz notches victories in the Midwest and Mountain West. And the results in California and other states are jumbled enough to leave Trump three dozen delegates short of the 1,237 required — forcing a contested convention in Cleveland in July.

But the slow-bleed strategy is risky and hinges on Trump losing Florida, Illinois and Ohio on March 15; wins in all three would set him on track to amass the majority of delegates. Even as some party figures see glimmers of hope that Trump can be overtaken, others believe any stop-Trump efforts could prove futile.

Here’s the small little problem with this. Trump is ahead in all of those states. Trump leads Marco “empty suit” Rubio by 20 points is some polls. The averaged Trump lead according to Real Clear Politics is 16 points. Rubio has a week to close that gap. I don’t see how Rubio does that particularly because in contests tonight he’ll be lucky if he comes in third. I have to say I don’t see what constituency Rubio is appealing to. Whomever it is they are certainly not voting for Rubio.

Ohio is another story. It looks like John Kasich is making this one a race. But if Trump wins in Florida (which is winner take all), it might now make that much of a difference.

Is it possible that the scenario described above can happen? Yes, it is possible. The real question is how realistic is that scenario and I would say not all that likely.

But let’s say for just a moment it does happen. Trump doesn’t have a majority of the delegates going into the convention. First of all wow what a convention it would be to watch. After the first ballot, most delegates are no longer bound to a candidate.

So what happens? You have to assume that Cruz in all likelihood would have the most delegates after Trump so does Cruz then up the nominee? If this were the result, how long would it take for Trump to launch an independent candidacy? Trump’s supporters would be livid. There is no way they would support any other candidate. Would that mean the Republican Party would be torn apart? That might not actually be a bad thing. Maybe some sanity would be restored to the party. But that’s a big maybe.

The Democrats

The Democrats seem so staid and calm and down right boring when compared to the Republicans. I’m thinking that this is a good thing.

Hillary Clinton continues to move closer and closer to the nomination. Bernie Sanders had a good weekend winning in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine. Clinton won in Louisiana. Even though Sanders won more contests; Clinton got more delegates. Not many more (it was only 9) but still more delegates.

Sanders’ problem he has not been able to win in the bigger states. States with a more diverse electorate. Until he can do that, there’s little hope he can win against Clinton. That’s a point made in the Post:

“What took you so long?”

The question, posed to Sen. Bernie Sanders this week by a local newspaper editor about his first visit last month to the majority-black city of Flint, Mich., cut to the heart of his struggles to engage black voters and compete with front-runner Hillary Clinton for the Democratic presidential nomination.

An awkward reality has defined the nominating contest between Sanders and Clinton this year: his failure to win over African American voters — or the states where they represent large portions of the electorate. As a result, Sanders in recent weeks has focused almost exclusively on winning in whiter states, where his campaign has resonated among younger and working-class voters.

The main thing tonight Sanders needs to win Michigan if he has any chance to win the nomination.

Republican Establishment Melt Down Over Trump

Talk about panicking. That’s what some establishment Republicans are doing over the prospects of Trump as the nominee. From the Post:

The Republican Party was in a state of pandemonium Wednesday as a clutch of independent groups scrambled to throw together a last-ditch effort to deny Donald Trump the presidential nomination, even as some party figures concluded it was now too late to stop the billionaire mogul.

The decentralized and desperate stop-Trump campaign found a possible new leader in Mitt Romney, the party’s 2012 presidential nominee, who is expected to deliver a forceful, top-to-bottom indictment of Trump in a speech on Thursday.

In a flurry of conference calls and meetings, top Republican donors and strategists laid plans for a multimillion-dollar assault on the front-runner in a series of states holding contests on March 15. Ground zero is Florida, where home-state Sen. Marco Rubio, the leading establishment candidate, is going all in to defeat Trump, who leads in the polls there.

This would be funny if it weren’t so important. One does have to wonder where the Republican establishment has been all this time. I guess they bought into the news media line of Trump can’t last. He’ll flame out. He’ll say something so outrageous that his campaign will implode. But that hasn’t happened yet. And now PANIC!

On Wednesday night, a group of more than 50 conservative foreign policy experts, including former homeland security secretary Michael Chertoff and former deputy secretary of state Robert Zoellick, issued an open letter calling Trump unfit for the office of president.

Like I said it would be funny if it didn’t have such major consequences. But what is so very ironic about what is happening is that the blame for this rests completely and totally at the feet of the Republicans. I’m sure the idea or thought was that at some point in time Trump would implode. Then along would come the Republicans and sweep up the Trump voters. That’s why the attacks on Trump were few and far between. Because you wouldn’t want to insult the Donald because that would be insulting his voters. And those voters are needed to further the ends of the Republican Party to get back the White House.

That’s why Ted Cruz wouldn’t push back against all the crazy things Trump said. Like everyone else, Cruz thought Trump would be a fad. Once the fad was over, Cruz would get the lions share of the Trump voters.
But that’s not what happened. Instead the Trump phenomenon grew and grew. The only small little hiccup was Iowa. Then everyone thought Trump was vulnerable. That certainly was not the case after South Carolina. And so once again the Republicans were too cute by half and put the Republican Party first before the country, thus Trump is now in the position to be the nominee.

As I’ve said before the Republicans have only themselves to blame for this. In their zeal to get back in power to first get the House then the Senate and then the presidency, they encouraged all the crazy charges against Obama. The birther movement. The charges he was a socialist. That he was going to ruin the country. They not only did nothing to stop this but actively encouraged it. All of the votes to repeal Obamacare and they know nothing would come of it. The bottom line was to get back in power.

Finally the Republican base wised up to what was going on. They realized they were being lied to by the establishment. That the establishment was the enemy. The establishment was not to be trusted. That’s the reason Boehner was forced out. So the monster that the Republican establishment helped to create and nurture, which it used to get into power, which it thought it could always control, is suddenly uncontrollable. It’s turned on its master. And along came Trump. He’s using that monster to destroy the Republican establishment and to gain the Republican nomination for president.

Sometimes you reap the whirlwind. And that’s exactly what’s happen to the Republican Party.

The Republicans Race to the Bottom

I would say the Republican candidates have gotten down in the gutter. But I think a more appropriate way to describe it is they are looking up at the gutter.

It’s like a bunch of six year-olds got let loose. To say that it is demeaning the process is an understatement. Trump was going to be Trump. Vulgar and crass. But now the other two main contenders are trying to out do Trump.

Senator Cruz you sort of expect that from. He comes off as just plain slimy. In a appearance on Meet the Press, Cruz said that maybe one of the reasons Trump doesn’t want to release his taxes is it might show his ties to the Mafia. First and foremost how would someone’s tax returns show they had dealings with the Mafia. When asked if Cruz had any specifics, he dropped the name of New York City mobster but failed to point out anything that would back up his statement. Cruz is great at doing this. Repeating or rumor or just making one up. Not saying he total believes it but just posits the theory that, in this case, Trump has ties to the mob. Not that there is any basis in fact to believe this at all. Then again does it come as any surprise. The Republicans have long been fact deniers. Why should Ted Cruz be any different.

As for the empty suit Senator Rubio, wow he really and truly out Trumped Trump. This is by the far the best of Rubio’s lines:

He’s like six-two, which is why I don’t understand why his hands are the size of someone who’s five-two. Have you seen his hands? They’re like this. And you know what they say about men with small hands.” Pause for effect. “You can’t trust them.”

Yes because the idea of small hands on a man always leads people to believe that you can’t trust that person. Instead of thinking I don’t know (and I’ll try and not sink to the Republicans level here) that his manhood is not all that big.

I like how Eugene Robinson from the Post put it:

Rubio managed to lower himself, and the debate, beneath even Trump’s level. But I’m not sure there was much of a choice. Trump is threatening to effectively lock up the nomination before Rubio even notches his first primary victory.

While Rubio was teasing and taunting, Trump was racking up bombshell endorsements — most notably from ex-candidate Chris Christie, who had vied with Rubio for the votes of establishment Republicans. Christie’s support helps make it safe for others to join the Trump bandwagon; Sen. Jeff Sessions of Alabama climbed aboard Sunday.

Trash-talking, alliances, conspiracies, betrayals — this whole campaign has become a reality-television show. The problem is that it’s on every single channel.

Then there was Trump’s problem with David Duke. You know David Duke the ex grand wizard or whatever of the KKK. Duke endorsed Trump. It took Trump a little while to disavow that endorsement. Trump was interviewed on CNN and was asked about Duke. Trump did not distance himself from Duke. He later said he had a bad ear piece and hadn’t properly heard the question. In any other circumstances I’d give Trump the benefit of the doubt. But well.

But back again to the empty suite Rubio. Yes, I really don’t like this guy. His sudden tactics of attacking Trump reek of desperation. He’s behind just about every state that will vote on Super Tuesday. That why Rubio is doing this because he is so far behind and that the Republican establishment is wetting itself over the possibility of a Trump candidacy. It shows that Rubio and the establishment were more than happy to have Trump say the things he said if it could work in some way in the Party’s favor. The idea that Trump would fade at some point and the Republican Party could co-opt his supporters and bring them into the Republican fold. Now suddenly, oops, we need to take this nut out. It just continues to show that Republicans put winning before anything else instead of putting what’s good for the country first.

And that the Republican establishment is backing Rubio just reinforces how desperate they are to get Trump out. Rubio’s problem can best be summed up by another columnist in the Post, Richard Cohen:

Rubio’s challenge in this campaign was to show that he is not the callow youth he appears to be. He had to show he was bigger than the sum of his slight bio — a first-term senator whose only real accomplishment was to become a first-term senator. He had to show that Rick Santorum had merely frozen before the camera on “Morning Joe” when he endorsed Rubio and then could not come up with a single thing he had done in the Senate. If Rubio, as he himself says, is the candidate of the future, then so are his achievements.

I’ll close by saying this. Having one candidate like Donald Trump was bad enough. But now it seems all three major candidates on the Republican side have morphed into six year olds.

Trump Wins Another One — And the Nomination?

I guess the question now is can the Donald be stopped. Trump won convincingly in Nevada. He was 22% ahead of Rubio and Rubio ended up with 23% of the vote. Trump won across the board in just about every demographic group.

Rubio once again came in second again. As one pundit said Rubio might be everyone’s second choice but at some point he needs to be the first choice. Rubio continues to insist he’s the only alternative to Trump. However, if you look at the delegate count (which is what really counts), Rubio is tied with Cruz at 17.

Trump is way ahead with 81 delegates. That doesn’t seem like a huge lead but it really is. Trump will continue to pile up delegates with the upcoming Super Tuesday contests. The way it is right now it is very possible he will win most of them. That will mean Trump will have a UUGE lead in delegates. The thinking is once the primaries go to winner take all contests, the other candidates will be able to make headway on Trump. But by then it might be too late to stop him.

There is all sorts of consternation going on in the Republican ranks. The main theme is that time seems to be running out to stop Trump. From he Post:

Donald Trump has taken firm control of the race for the Republican presidential nomination with his third straight victory, in Nevada. To deny him that role, strategists say, his leading rivals must quickly change the trajectory of the race and then dig in for what could be a long battle that could go all the way to the GOP convention in Cleveland.

Strategists who have been through past nomination battles say that Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.), Sen. Ted Cruz (Tex.) and Ohio Gov. John Kasich collectively have until March 15 to turn the race away from the New York billionaire. Each has a must-win test looming in his home state between now and then. But those victories alone might not be sufficient to block Trump’s path.

“The reality is that, until the field starts to narrow, it’s going to be very, very hard to take him out,” said Katie Packer, deputy campaign manager for Mitt Romney’s 2012 campaign and the leader of an anti-Trump super PAC. “I think people need to step up and start taking on Trump. Front-runners don’t just stumble. People trip them.”

The success of the Trump candidacy is due in no small part to the actions by the Republican Party establishment. They putting winning above all else. They thought they could use the Tea Party and other angry voters to gain back both the House and Senate.

They succeeded in doing that by making all sorts of promises and playing to the fears that people had. They allowed the birther movement and all the other absurd things said about Obama to go forward without being challenged. You know he’s a Muslim. Because again all that mattered was winning and getting back in power. They said they would repeal Obamacare. When they knew full well there was no way that was going to happen but made the promise anyway because all that mattered to them was gaining power.

The Republican establishment thought the Republican voters wouldn’t notice this. That there promises were never converted into actions. Well they finally did. They decided to not believe the lies of the Republican establishment any more (and frankly who could blame them). And they began to flock to Trump.

The things Trump said and says are outrageous. But there was very little criticism of Trump on these. A half-hearted attempt by Speaker Ryan saying that’s not what the Republican Party stands for. Then in the same breath saying that if Trump was the nominee, Ryan would support him. Yes the other candidates did say that what Trump said was over the top. But they never truly challenged him.

It appears in all likelihood, unless there is a major shake up, that Trump is on the way to winning the Republican nomination. Yes, there are many more primary contests to go. But in the majority of them Trump is ahead.

The Republican establishment must be so proud of themselves for what they have helped to unleash. All in the name of winning and gaining power instead of what is best for the country.

The State of the Race — Are the Front Runners Set to Win

The Democrats

Saturday was certainly important to the Clinton campaign. A win in Nevada was desperately needed to stall Sanders momentum (slightly over played from my point of view but more on that later). Here’s how the Post put it:

Hillary Clinton held off a powerful late challenge from rival Sen. Bernie Sanders in Nevada’s Democratic caucus vote Saturday, securing a narrow victory that helps the former secretary of state regain momentum after a crushing defeat in New Hampshire.

Nevada was the first state to test support among minority voters, who have long been expected to be in Clinton’s camp. As it turned out, preliminary entrance polls showed Latinos favoring Sanders, despite having voted for Clinton 2-to-1 when she ran in 2008. African American voters, meanwhile, appear to have overwhelmingly supported Clinton — a development that could bode extremely well for her given the run of Southern states with large black electorates voting in the coming weeks.

It was indeed a win but well look at the results:

Clinton got 52.6%. Sanders got 47.3 and .1 percent went to other. Now look at the vote totals. Clinton 6,316. Sanders 5,678. A total of 11,994 people voted. I’m sorry caucused. That is like just nuts. Once again I will rail against caucuses to no good of course. But change the damn system so more people can participate.

As to the must win as the media put it. Yes, she did need a win. But, if there was any real analysis by the media (mostly but not entirely TV), there would have been emphasis on the contests coming up and how they favor Clinton. There was some of it but the implication was a loss by her in Nevada would have drastically changed things. I’m sorry how exactly would that have happened. Yes, Sanders would have gotten more press. But would this have moved voters from her to Sanders? Especially considering what the make up of the electorate is in states going forward. In other words states are no longer lily white. And Sanders has yet to prove he can win in a diversified electorate.

Clinton is favored to win South Carolina but a lot. The poll averages from RealClear Politics has Clinton up by about 25%. Sanders campaigned briefly in South Carolina but has moved on to other states that vote in super Tuesday.

The Republicans


Donald Trump did really well in South Carolina he got 32% of the votes. 10 percent higher than his nearest rival Marco Rubio. And Rubio barely came in second. Cruz was only 1,091 votes behind.

At least this time the media did not fall into the trap of saying how well Rubio did. He has yet to win a contest and yet he is seen as the “establishment” candidate. There are still some in the media that say he will be the likely nominee. How that happens is beyond me.

Trump one South Carolina. He won across the state. By doing so he got all 50 of the delegates for that state. So far Trump has 67 delegates. Cruz is closest to Trump with just 11. Granted this is still very early. But Trump will likely win in Nevada. And he is ahead in many of the states that vote on Super Tuesday. Even in “liberal” Massachusetts, Trump is ahead and by huge margins.

The question has to be how the Republican establishment stops Trump. How do they get the race down to just Trump and someone else? Right now that does not seem likely. Certainly not likely before Super Tuesday. And on that day Trump will win the majority of delegates. He won’t have an insurmountable lead but it will be substantial.

After Super Tuesday, the contest turns to more winner take all states. But with a crowded field Trump could still win those states without getting the majority of votes. There is also another problem with the idea of getting the field down to Trump and the anti-Trump. It assumes that people who were supporting other candidates instead of the anti-Trump all end up voting for the anti-Trump. That is just not going to be the case. Some will vote for Trump. And some might just stay home because they don’t like Trump or the anti-Trump candidate.

Here's a great link to a delegate tracker on the Bloomberg site.

Going Forward

So does this past weekend’s results mean the front runners are likely to be the two nominees. It is too early to tell in both parties.

I would say Clinton has a better chance simply because of the change in the demographics going forward in the states that vote. I don’t see Sanders winning in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia or Texas. Again the big delegate winner that night will be Clinton. How does Sanders get to 2,383 delegates to win the nomination? Right now I don’t see it.

As for Trump, he need 1,237 delegates to get the nomination. With so many people in the race, especially if the field does not narrow, Trump will be picking up the majority of the delegates. But will he get enough to pass the magic number before the convention. I think that is the interesting question to have answered.

And as we say in my family we’ll see.

The New Hampshire Results are In

The results certainly are in. It’s turned the race in both parties upside down. At least that seems to be the conventional wisdom. I guess that’s true. I’m not sure the results on the Democrats side is all that much of a surprise considering how the polls were going. I think that’s true on the Republican side too. I think it’s been a wake up call, slap in the face, dose of reality or whatever other cliché you want to use. The voters are angry and restless and the establishments in both parties are now really and truly getting that.

First things first. I want to say I’m so glad Iowa and New Hampshire are out of the way. I know it’s tradition that this two states go first but they certainly do not represent what the country is like. Both are really really white. Iowa is very evangelical. Iowa is also a caucus state which, well I’ve made my feelings clear about what I think of caucuses. I think caucuses should just be gotten rid of across the board. The states that have them should have primaries instead. I know that’s not going to happen but it’s not going to stop me from pointing that out every chance I get.

Now on to the results.

Republicans
I have to say I’m so very glad that Rubio got his clock cleaned. I have never understood the favorable press this guy has gotten. That he is some how a really smart guy. The debate showed he’s good with a line but that’s it. Can’t think on his feet at all. He spun a third place finish in Iowa into some kind of win. With the results in Iowa, the idea was for him to come in second. He had all the momentum going into New Hampshire. But that might not actually be the case.

This is from a story in the Post:

We can say pretty conclusively that a look at polls in New Hampshire on the day of the Iowa caucuses (when Rubio had an average of 9.5 percent) and a look at the final result would suggest that Rubio had no bump during the last week -- or that, if he did, the tide went out as suddenly as it came in.

Rubio finally admitted he made a mistake. Supposedly it will be fixed. But I’m not sure exactly how his campaign goes about doing that. I have a feeling he won’t do very well in South Carolina and will be out after that. At least I hope so.

Trump of course was the big winner. He had to be. A loss would have been really hard on his campaign. And he won really big. 20 points ahead of his nearest rival John Kasich. Trump got 35% of the vote. This is important because the conventional wisdom from the media is that Trump’s support has a ceiling of around 30%. He broke that level. I think that’s important.

Going forward there will be stiffer competition with the primaries moving to the south. Cruz will be much stronger there. Bush has a history in South Carolina. But as of right now (according to the RealClear Politics site based on polls taken mid to late January) Trump is at 36%. The next closest rival is Cruz at 20%. I’m not sure how anyone catches Trump in South Carolina. And he will be getting huge press coverage because of the win in New Hampshire.

John Kasich came in second. To be honest I don’t know where he goes from here. From all reports he bet the farm on New Hampshire and it did pay off for him. But does he have the money and organization to win anywhere else. Also the campaign moves south so that doesn’t help him all that much. As we say in my family we’ll see.

The Democrats
Bernie crushed Hillary. And there’s not a whole lot more you need to say about it. This will give Bernie and big boost no question. He has the money to go the distance. In fact, he probably has more money then Clinton right now.

The question is where does Clinton go to raise money.  Have big fund raisers with all those fat cats plays right into Sanders’ hand.

But Sanders has, well I’m not sure they’re problems, but is going on to states where the make up of the electorate is very different then Iowa or New Hampshire. It will be interesting to see how well Sanders will be able to appeal to minority voters as well as people at different economic levels.

For the Democrats on to Nevada which is unfortunately another caucus state.

Thoughts Political on the Race so Far

The first contest finally happened. Not that I’m a huge fan of caucuses but at least the voting has started.

So here are my thoughts on the race. (I would have gotten to this a little sooner but my cold was still an issue last week. I think and hope that this is finally over. Still have a little bit of a cough but that’s going away too.)

The Republicans
Only in politics would coming in third be viewed as some sort of a win. But that was the coverage that Marco Rubio got for his third place finish in Iowa. In his “victory” speech he talked about how no one expected that his campaign would get this sort of results. Except for the fact that just about every tracking poll showed that he was in third place. He did come very close to Trump but in the end Rubio was still in third place.

But you wouldn’t have know that from the press coverage. Then again Rubio seems to be the press’ darling. Over and over I’ve read these glowing pieces on Rubio. How smart he is. How he can appeal to a broader group of votes than the other GOP candidates. All I see is an empty suit. His one major proposal immigration reform he ran away from as fast as he could when there was push back on it. I just don’t see the appeal. I don’t see how he appeals to Hispanic voters when he back tracked on immigration.

Then came the debate on Saturday. I will say this I did not watch the debate in part because I really don’t think debates are very helpful or informative. And also it was the Republicans and well it was the Republicans. But Rubio ran into problems with his canned speech about Obama which he used four times even after he’d been called out about it by Chris Christie. From the Post:

Rubio tried to get personal by accusing Christie of not wanting to return to New Jersey during a recent snowstorm. The crowd saw what Rubio was doing and booed.

As the two bickered back and forth, Rubio seemed stuck in one gear: Repeat his stump speech. And every time, Christie called him out on it.

“There it is,” Christie said, turning toward the audience. “The 25-second memorized speech.”

Another article from the Post best sums up how badly Rubio did in the debate:

Rubio has been such a strong debater so far — and a steady hand on the campaign trail in general. And then he ran into Christie. The New Jersey governor hit Rubio for never having been a chief executive and for not having much to show for his time in the Senate. He seemed to knock Rubio off his game so much that Rubio wound up repeating a stock answer about President Obama — that Obama knows exactly what he’s doing in driving the country to the left — three times. It was conspicuous and very not-smooth.

Then Christie smelled blood and pounced, hitting Rubio for not being able to venture beyond his talking points — or his “25-second speech,” as Christie called it. It became hard to watch. Rubio finished in third place in Iowa, but he was seen as the momentum candidate coming into New Hampshire. He got the front-runner’s treatment, and it wasn’t good. We’ll see if it hurts his poll numbers.

I think the debate performance hurt Rubio. In all likelihood slowed his momentum to be the establishment candidate for the Republicans. He was surging in the polls but he got a ton of negative press from the debate. It was the major topic of conversation on the political shows on Sunday and not in a good way.

I think this will stay with Rubio for the rest of the contest in New Hampshire and most likely beyond. Rubio is going to have to show he can think on his feet. And come up with something original to say. The thing was his dig on Obama was practically word for word the same all four times he said it. Even after he’d been called out about it by Christie. And each time he said it Christie pointed it out.

The Democrats
A tie in Iowa between Sanders and Clinton. I’ll add again that I dislike the caucus process. But how the Democrats run theirs is terrible. No raw vote totals just something called (I think I got this right) state delegate equivalents. Whatever the hell that is. In several precincts the winner was decided by a coin toss.

Oh democracy at its best.

On to New Hampshire. It looks like a certain win for Sanders. I don’t think that comes as a big surprise considering Sanders is from Vermont. It too is a state more suited to Sanders like Iowa was. The demographics work in his favor.

Nevada is next on Feb. 20 (another caucus state but at least it’s on a Saturday). After that is South Carolina. I think both of these states favor Clinton.

I think Sanders is going to have problems attracting minority voters. I think breaking up big banks might not be all that of a central issue to them. One thing surprised about is why more questions aren’t raised about Sanders stances on foreign policy. I would have thought the Clinton campaign would have gone after him on that.

As for Clinton, she continues to have problems with e-mails and the speaking fees she got from Wall Street. I think these are going to follow her as long as she’s in the race. I’m a little puzzled why they aren’t more out in front on both of these.

Since both are going to able to raise money, this will be decided later rather than sooner. I think that’s a good thing for whomever is the nominee. I also think it makes the later primaries actually matter.

The Polls
I’m beginning to think polls are less and less reliable. They also seem to be something the news media trots out repeatedly. I’ve also noticed that the reporting of the margin of error in these polls is hardly is ever mentioned. So when candidates are two or three points separated from each other, they are essentially in a tie. But that makes the who’s in first narrative a little harder to sell by the media.

Even more bogus are the so called national match ups. How well does Clinton do against all the Republicans. The same for Sanders. The same for all the Republicans against the two Democrats. As I said these seem to me just bogus. After Iowa suddenly Rubio was doing really well against the Democrats. Now is that really a reflection of who people are going to vote for. Or is it a more realistic snap shot of which candidate has suddenly gotten a great deal of press. I’m going to guess the second one.

New Hampshire
So what are the portents for New Hampshire?

For the Democrats: Sanders will win over Clinton. It will be interesting to see what the margin will be.

For the Republicans: I think Trump wins. Again the margin will be interesting. Also who comes in second, third and fourth. And probably most important how close those other candidates are to each other. I have a feeling this time around New Hampshire will not be the campaign ender as it has been in the past. In large part because of Rubio’s bad performance in the debate.

Let the votes be counted.

It all Starts Tonight — The Race for the White House 2016

The first step to the 2016 presidential nomination. It’s the Iowa caucus. I have to say I have a problem with caucuses in general. I don’t think they are particularly open process. Too many people are shut out of the process because they can’t devote the necessary time for the caucus.

Ruth Marcus has a column in the Post today that points out the problems I have with the caucus. These examples show what’s wrong with a caucus:

Curt Johansen, 56, is leaning toward Bernie Sanders, but that inclination is irrelevant. Johansen works evenings dispatching mechanics to help truckers suffering breakdowns, which means he can’t vote in Monday’s caucuses, attendance required, with doors closed at 7 p.m. sharp.

Dustin Jividen, a 32-year-old printer, is all-in for Sanders, as is his wife. Will they caucus? Probably not. His wife works evenings, and Jividen would need to find a baby-sitter for the kids, ages 3 and 8. “I don’t think they would really appreciate standing around for a couple hours,” debating the relative merits of Sanders and Hillary Clinton, Jividen said.

Pat Kerr, 64, a receptionist at H&R Block, supports Clinton. She won’t be caucusing either. “I hurt my back,” she said. “I can’t hardly even walk.”

Here’s a little more from another Post article today:

The rap on these caucuses, which grows louder each election cycle, is that asking normal people to spend several hours listening to political arguments is undemocratic and unfair. Voter turnout suggests that this is right. In 2012, 121,501 Iowans voted in the Republican presidential caucuses. The Republican primary for Iowa’s U.S. Senate race drew out 158,031 total voters. These sorts of contests have usually slanted more toward party activists than late-deciding voters, which is a major reason why Republican elites hope that Iowa can embarrass Trump.

Then there is the fact that the state is not representative as the country as a whole. Very white in general. On the Republican a large group of evangelicals that have a great impact on the results. Thus the reason Santorum and Huckabee won the last two.

But this is the system that we have. The criticisms against caucuses in general and this one in particular have been around for a long time. They will problem be around for a long time to come. The process in all likelihood will not change. And Iowa will remain the first contest of the primary season.

So it’s time to sit back and see what happens because it all starts tonight.

The Craziness of the Republican Party

Just when you think it can’t get any more weird or crazy, it does. Then the Donald strikes again:

Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump called Monday for a “total and complete” ban on Muslims entering the United States, barring followers of the world’s fastest-growing religion because he considers the faith rooted in hatred and violence.

But at a rally Monday night in South Carolina, Trump received a boisterous standing ovation as he shared the idea, telling the crowd that a ban is “common sense” and that his Muslim friends agree with him.

“We have no choice,” he said to cheers. “We have no choice. We have no choice.”

Wow. Let me say that again wow. About as un-American as you can possibly get. The reaction was swift from everyone. Even Dick Cheney thought it was too much:

“I think this whole notion that somehow we can just say no more Muslims, just ban a whole religion, goes against everything we stand for and believe in,” Cheney told Hugh Hewitt on Hewitt’s conservative radio show Monday. “I mean, religious freedom has been a very important part of our history and where we came from.

From Paul Ryan:

“When we voted to pause the refugee program a few weeks ago, I made very clear at the time: there would not be a religious test. There would be a security test. And that is because freedom of religion is a fundamental Constitutional principle. It’s a founding principle of this country.

“Normally I do not comment on what’s going on in the presidential election. I will take an exception today. This is not conservatism. What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for, and more importantly, is not what this country stands for.

Most of the Republicans running for president said this was wrong and not the American way. Although some like Ted Cruz were as muted as possible in their criticism. The reason they don’t want to piss off Trump voters because Cruz wants them to support him once Trump is through (that is if that ever happens).

A couple of thoughts come to mind. First is the media should go after Trump on just how this plan of his is going to work. From the first reports, it sounds you ask someone if they are a Muslin when they enter the country. And if they say no you let them go. Wow isn’t that an effective way to keep Muslims out of the country. I’m sure everyone would be honest while answering that question. This to me seems a more effective way to go after this incredibly stupid bigoted policy (oh did I just make a judgment on this) then challenging it on any other grounds. This won’t make any difference to Trump supporters because their candidate can do no wrong. But it will work with other people.

There is one thing I find amusing about this whole thing well actually there’s more than one but this sticks out to me. And it’s Paul Ryan’s statement This is not conservatism. What was proposed yesterday is not what this party stands for. So sorry to burst your bubble Mr. Speaker but this exactly what conservatism and the Republican Party now stands for.

One has to look no further then who is ahead in the polls for the Republican presidential nomination. Just take a look at the other candidates rhetoric on immigration and Muslims (Bush called for a religious test in admitting Syrian refugees yes to Christians, no to Muslims) and just about every other issue like saying rounding up all those illegal immigrants. The stances are to be kind extreme. Trump has pulled the party farther and farther to the right. And there has been little if any push back until now. But the move right continues even after this comment. Wake up Mr. Ryan and smell the coffee of the new Republican Party. This is exactly what it now stands for.

The State of the Race — Republicans Again

I know at some point I should talk about the Democrats but all the fun seems to be with the Republicans so far.

The problem we have in this country is Muslims and Obama is one of them and the secret training camps for terrorists in this country. This was a comment to Trump at one of his campaign rallies. Instead of calling the guy out or disputing the training camps, Trump essentially agreed with him. Then the campaign said it wasn’t Trumps responsibility to correct what the guy said.

Then there’s this gem from Ben Carson:

Republican presidential candidate Ben Carson says Islam is antithetical to the Constitution, and he doesn’t believe that a Muslim should be elected president.

Carson, a devout Christian, says a president’s faith should matter to voters if it runs counter to the values and principles of America.

Responding to a question during an interview broadcast Sunday on NBC’s “Meet the Press,” he described the Islamic faith as inconsistent with the Constitution.

“I would not advocate that we put a Muslim in charge of this nation,” Carson said. “I absolutely would not agree with that.”

He did not specify in what way Islam ran counter to constitutional principles.

At least not all of the Republican candidates agreed with Carson:

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who taped Sunday an episode of Iowa Press, an Iowa Public Television program, was asked if he agreed with Carson’s statements on Muslims being president. “The Constitution specifies that there shall be no religious test for public office, and I am a constitutionalist,” Cruz said.

Seems to me that instead of running around and talking about the Constitution they might actually want to sit down and read the document. They’d be surprised just how wrong they’ve been on what it says and means. Wrong about it for years. Case in point their support for the clerk in Kentucky who wouldn’t issue marriage licenses. You swear to uphold the law and part of that law is you don’t get to decide what duties you won’t perform in a position because you religion is against it. You have to wonder if oh say a Muslim did the same thing. These same idiots would be screaming about Sharia law being implemented in America.

The other news is that Scott Walker dropped out of the race. I have to say to me this not much news. He seemed well to be nice like a complete dolt. He seemed unable to articulate a position which he didn’t change his mind on ten minutes later. He was revealed to be an empty suit. The Koch brothers anointed candidate just didn’t have what it takes to reach the primaries let alone the general election.

Stephen Stromberg had a column in the Post that summed up this ill fated run:

Wisconsin Gov. Scott Walker dropped out of the Republican presidential race on Monday, showing that simplicity and shamelessness aren’t always rewarded in politics. Walker was supposed to be a GOP juggernaut, uniting anti-union business types, evangelicals and tea partyers with his combative, ideologically charged record in Madison. Emphasizing his Midwestern identity and conservative credentials — playing a sort of everyday ideologue — he seemed to have Iowa locked up, until Donald Trump exploded.=

Walker didn’t need Trump to fail. He didn’t just have bad luck. He couldn’t be any more than he is: walking proof that a combative style, a hard ideological edge and identity-based pandering can’t always make up for cluelessness. The conservatives who championed Walker should have expected more. The Republican Party needs more.

 What the Republican Party needs are some candidates that actually have a brain (yes I know a tall order with this group), that actually know what the Constitution says and won't pander to the far right monster the party helped create. And that will be one tall order.

The State of the Race — Republicans

Trump. Trump. Trump.

Sound familiar.

Yet it is. The Donald is still in first place in the recent round of polls. Right around 28% according to the Quinnipiac Poll. The next closest challenger is at 12%. And the person in second place is Ben Carson. All of the establishment candidates are in single digits.

Trump’s poll numbers continue to go up. The collapse that everyone in the media and punditry and the Republican Party seem to be wrong, at least so far. Trump continues to suck all the oxygen out of the room. He continues to be the main political story on the news. On the MSNBC nightly talk shows there are at least a couple of stories on each show every night. Trump probably doesn’t need to run any sort of campaign ads because of all the free publicity he gets.

That publicity means his poll numbers will in all likelihood remain high. And that means he will be in the second debate which is a little less than three weeks away. So he’ll be the center of attention again. It will be interesting who else gets to be on stage with him. But no doubt about it he will be center to everything.

Some in the media are actually starting to take him seriously. Personally I think he’s just one more clown in the Republican clown bus but he is and has been since he announced ahead in the polls. And that cannot be ignored. But I don’t seem him going away anytime soon. I think he will be around for the first contests.

It is time the media cover him in a more serious way. The editorializing in the straight news stories, especially on TV, need to stop. There are slight and very subtle digs against the Trump campaign in the news coverage. I saw in one report a correspondent refer to it as the Trump show. I can’t imagine them saying the same thing about Jeb Bush’s campaign. They wouldn’t call it a show.

Now that doesn’t mean they shouldn’t be asking tough questions. The standard line from Trump I’ll be the greatest president ever or fill in the blank on whatever issue he’s talking about. The obvious question is how would he do that. On immigration how would you deport all those people, where would the money come from to undertake such a program. And so on. They are starting to do that but the Donald just brushed them aside. Which of course the people who support Trump love to see because they hate the media.

The talking heads all see Trump as a fad. A summer fling that will fade away once fall and serious campaigning begins. That may indeed be true. But this could be a different type of campaign. Where candidates have access to huge sums of money that allows them to stay in for as long as the money lasts. It might also be the campaign where the far right decides they no longer are going to listen to the Republican establishment. This time around they will nominate a candidate to their liking. That just might be Trump. There are some problems with Trump and his positions that will come up with this group. But right now they are so pissed at the Republican establishment they just want to see that establishment suffer.

This has happened because the Republican establishment has made all sorts of promises to the far right that they have not been able to keep. Case number one is repealing Obamacare. Over and over again they promised Obamacare would go away. But the reality is they knew this was not going to happen. They made this promise to get votes. They did not make it because they thought they would be able to accomplish it. And that’s just one of the issues the establishment has failed on. Trump is the way for the people who feel they’ve been fed a line to get some pay back.

The question is of course how long can Trump keep going. It seems normal political events have little if any impact on his campaign. My feeling he is it for the long haul. And that should make establishment Republicans very nervous.

The State of the Race: Trump, Trump!, TRUMP!

Did you know Donald Trump is running for president?

In fact he’s the lead in most polls.

Not of course that you would be able to find that out because there is like no coverage on his campaign at all. No wait that's everyone else’s campaign isn’t getting any coverage.

All the pundits feel Trumps campaign cannot last and yet he is still barreling forward. It was going to end after his comment about John McCain. That didn’t happen. It was going to end with his comments about Fox newscaster Megyn Kelly. That’s done some damage but not sure if that ends the campaign. It would have ended any other campaign but Trump is not like any other candidate.

Here’s my take on some of the issues and factors swirling around the Donald’s campaign.

Trump is tapping into the rage of people who feel completely disenfranchised from politics. They put their faith in the Republican Party and the party has produced John McCain and Mitt Romney as the last two presidential candidates. Candidates these people really couldn’t stand.

These voters want a candidate to stand up to politicians and politics as usual. Trump is their guy for that. The more the establishment attacks Trump, the more the media attacks Trump, the more his supporters seem to rally to his side. (It will be interesting to see how the Megyn Kelly issue plays out on this. It’s still a little too early to tell if this hurts Trump or not). And the media, the “liberal media” which is going after Trump well Fox News is part of that “liberal media” (I know who would ever have thought Fox would be considered liberal.)

It’s difficult for the other Republican candidates to criticize Trump’s stance on issues because they’re not much different from the others. Trump might go completely bombastic on immigration and building the wall and making Mexico pay for it. But essentially that’s what all the other candidates want to do. They wan to secure the border and make it as hard as humanly possible for those here in this country illegally to become legal. No amnesty is their mantra.

The most important reason the other candidates are not going after Trump is the other candidates don’t want to alienate his voters. Because the rest of the field doesn't believe Trump can last, when he finally crashes and burns, the other candidates want his supporters.

I don't think this is like Michele Bachmann or Herman Cain. Two flash in the pans last time. Trump can continue because of the amount of money that he has. Also because the media is fixated on everything and anything that Trump does. He will continue to get press both good and bad until he decides to drop out of the race.

In the long run, I don't think that's very good for the Republican Party.

The State of the Race or It’s “Debate” Time

There are going to be ten candidate on the stage at the Republican debate. How much of a debate can it possibly be? How much of an impression is any one candidate going to be able to make that’s not named Donald Trump? How does this advance the democratic process at all? Finally how can this be good for the Republican Party?

Then of course there are the six or seven or eight (I’ve lost count of the number of candidates running) who get to have the kiddies debate which is before the real debate. This is like a bad reality TV show (and I think just about all reality TV is bad).

Certainly the Republican clown car has morphed in the clown bus and I believe the bus is now a double decker.

Going back to the logistics of this. How much time is any one candidate going to have to promote their positions? Doesn’t that mean to make an impression and grab the headlines or lead in the news cycle you have to out Donald Donald Trump? I just don’t see how anyone watching the “debate” is going to learn anything about the candidates. Also who is going to be watching this thing? (I think I’m going to skip it.)

I guess it will get ratings because of the circus like atmosphere that’s been attached to it and the fact the Donald is going to be there. There was a story in the Post the other day about Chris Wallace the moderator of the debate it said:

Enter Trump, who has been trash-talking just about everyone in unusually impolitic terms — disparaging Scott Walker (“Wisconsin is in terrible shape”), insulting Lindsey Graham (“a stiff”. . . “a total lightweight”), mocking Rick Perry (“he put on glasses so people think he’s smart”). (And yes, Wallace has a researcher keeping track of all of these comments.)

“Trump, you know he wants to go after people,” Wallace said. “And you can be sure there will be a moment — whether it’s in my questioning or Bret’s or Megyn’s, where somebody is going to give him a fat juicy ball right in there so he can go after Bush and see how he responds to it. It’s sort of like playing three-dimensional checkers.”

Like I said I think I won’t watch it. These guys have absolutely nothing to say to me. I’m not going to vote for a Republican. That being said, if this was a debate of Democrats, I still wouldn’t watch. I just do not see how this is going to help a voter make up their mind on which candidate to support.

For a candidate to stand out from the crowd it seems to me a they have to say something outrageous. Either that or try to put Trump in his place. Something that most of the other candidates have been reluctant to do. (More on the Trump phenomenon in an upcoming post.)

The Republican Party thought the number of debates last time hurt the eventual Republican nominee. It was decided to have fewer debates. They accomplished that but now they have way too many candidates. I think that hurts them too.

America is Saved — Donald Trump is Running for President

Praise the Lord Hallelujah.

America is saved.

Donald Trump is running for president!!!!!!

Trump will save this country.

Trump will make it great again.

How do I know this? Because he said so.

In fact I don’t think we need to have any primaries or general elections at all. Just have Trump take over when Obama leaves office.

After all Trump has answers to all the problems of this country. He just has to say things and they will happen.

Trump will build a wall all along the Mexican border. And he’ll make Mexico pay for it. How? Because he’ll make it so.

Here's list of some of the finer points in the speech he made yesterday:

• Sell junk to Saudi Arabia, since the goods we send them are blown up anyway;
• Repeal Obamacare “and replace it with something that benefits everybody”;
• “Turn off that spigot” of sending money to China (in the form of debt payments) by taxing them “until they behave properly”;
• Renegotiate our foreign trade deals;
• Call up the head of the Ford Motor Company and tell them they are going to be taxed at 35 percent for every car coming from Mexico until they decide to nix their plant in Mexico City;
• End President Barack Obama’s executive actions on immigration;
• End border crossings from Mexico because some of those border-crossers are “rapists”;
• To do that, build a “great, great wall” on the U.S.-Mexico border;
• Have Mexico pay for that wall;
• Don’t appoint a secretary of state who rides bikes and breaks his leg;
• Avoid riding bikes himself;
• Work hard on the Islamic State problem;
• Stop Iran from getting nuclear weapons;
• Find the General Patton or General MacArthur from within the U.S. armed forces to “make it really work” in the Middle East;
• Rebuild the country’s infrastructure -- “nobody can do that like me”;
• Create jobs -- “I will be the greatest jobs president that God ever created”;
• Save Medicaid, Medicare and Social Security “without cuts”;
• Protect the Second Amendment;
• Take the brand of the United States “and make it great again.”

At least we now know who the driver for the Republican Clown Bus will be.

The front cover the Daily News sums it up nicely.